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	<title>Comments on: Berninger&#8217;s Communication Imperative</title>
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	<link>http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2006/12/30/berningers-communication-imperative/</link>
	<description>Let's just see what happens</description>
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		<link>http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2006/12/30/berningers-communication-imperative/comment-page-1/#comment-33126</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2008 18:48:17 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>By: David Weinberger</title>
		<link>http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2006/12/30/berningers-communication-imperative/comment-page-1/#comment-24502</link>
		<dc:creator>David Weinberger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Dec 2006 20:31:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2006/12/30/berningers-communication-imperative/#comment-24502</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Seth, I have tried to address this before, but I don&#039;t have a good answer because I don&#039;t have a single way of distinguishing realism from wishful thinking. For matters of science, it&#039;s one thing. For games of chance, it&#039;s another. For proposing to my wife, it was a third thing. For some types of decisions, my processes are better worked out than others, just as is true for all of us.

For the type of vision Berninger (and Zack Exley) is proposing, I do agree with you (assuming I&#039;m understanding you correctly) that my politics are at work here. Choosing what one counts as realistic (= attainable, worth working for, and worth hoping for...three interrelated criteria) is a political act. It is based in politics and leads to political action. So, I don&#039;t know that a new Enlightenment is possible. I think and hope it is, and believe that it&#039;s a goal worth working towards, even though I honestly can&#039;t assess its likelihood. If I thought there were zero possibility of moving any closer to that goal, I&#039;d be too discouraged to even try. But, beyond that, I don&#039;t have a general method for distinguishing between what&#039;s real and what&#039;s wishful. I have methods and techniques that vary with the topic.

So, why in this case do I think Berninger&#039;s vision is possible? In its sweep and totality, I think it&#039;s unlikely, but I think we can move in that direction. Why do I think that? You&#039;re not going to like the answer, Seth, but it&#039;s because of the evidence of change I already see (in a great sea of stasis), beliefs and hopes about human nature, and my understanding (weak though it is) of the factual nature of the Internet and of current world conditions. This constellation of belief means that to change my mind about this, one would probably first have to stamp out my hope rather than amass more dreary evidence.

I acknowledge that this means my beliefs are not based initially on an objective weighing of the evidence. But I think that&#039;s true of all of us, including the most hard-bitten realists. It&#039;s a tired old argument, but one I still think is valid...
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Seth, I have tried to address this before, but I don&#8217;t have a good answer because I don&#8217;t have a single way of distinguishing realism from wishful thinking. For matters of science, it&#8217;s one thing. For games of chance, it&#8217;s another. For proposing to my wife, it was a third thing. For some types of decisions, my processes are better worked out than others, just as is true for all of us.</p>
<p>For the type of vision Berninger (and Zack Exley) is proposing, I do agree with you (assuming I&#8217;m understanding you correctly) that my politics are at work here. Choosing what one counts as realistic (= attainable, worth working for, and worth hoping for&#8230;three interrelated criteria) is a political act. It is based in politics and leads to political action. So, I don&#8217;t know that a new Enlightenment is possible. I think and hope it is, and believe that it&#8217;s a goal worth working towards, even though I honestly can&#8217;t assess its likelihood. If I thought there were zero possibility of moving any closer to that goal, I&#8217;d be too discouraged to even try. But, beyond that, I don&#8217;t have a general method for distinguishing between what&#8217;s real and what&#8217;s wishful. I have methods and techniques that vary with the topic.</p>
<p>So, why in this case do I think Berninger&#8217;s vision is possible? In its sweep and totality, I think it&#8217;s unlikely, but I think we can move in that direction. Why do I think that? You&#8217;re not going to like the answer, Seth, but it&#8217;s because of the evidence of change I already see (in a great sea of stasis), beliefs and hopes about human nature, and my understanding (weak though it is) of the factual nature of the Internet and of current world conditions. This constellation of belief means that to change my mind about this, one would probably first have to stamp out my hope rather than amass more dreary evidence.</p>
<p>I acknowledge that this means my beliefs are not based initially on an objective weighing of the evidence. But I think that&#8217;s true of all of us, including the most hard-bitten realists. It&#8217;s a tired old argument, but one I still think is valid&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Seth Finkelstein</title>
		<link>http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2006/12/30/berningers-communication-imperative/comment-page-1/#comment-24501</link>
		<dc:creator>Seth Finkelstein</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Dec 2006 19:20:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2006/12/30/berningers-communication-imperative/#comment-24501</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;who view themselves as realists, but I refuse to concede reality to them&quot;

Well, I resemble that remark 1/2 :-)

As I&#039;ve asked you in previous threads, though, what method do you propose to distinguish between reality vs. wishful thinking (or worse, con-games)? [e.g. Don&#039;t let those bad-news bears bring you down on Dow 36,000, it&#039;s a NEW ERA of The Internet, the stock market is going to the moon, put your money in now, be an optimist ...]

]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;who view themselves as realists, but I refuse to concede reality to them&#8221;</p>
<p>Well, I resemble that remark 1/2 :-)</p>
<p>As I&#8217;ve asked you in previous threads, though, what method do you propose to distinguish between reality vs. wishful thinking (or worse, con-games)? [e.g. Don't let those bad-news bears bring you down on Dow 36,000, it's a NEW ERA of The Internet, the stock market is going to the moon, put your money in now, be an optimist ...]</p>
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