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Thursday, October 31, 2002 Bucks On LineHere's a chart I generated from data from Nielsen//NetRatings as reported by the Center for Media Research. It shows the growth of Internet usage (US) from Sept. 01 to Sept. 02 according to household income.
For the left-brained among us, here's the text version from the Center's coverage:
NOTE: John Walkenbach over at the J-Walk blog has vastly improved my visual display of this quantitative data. And he's provided notes explaining exactly why mine sucks. Nice job. 10/31/2002 08:29:59 AM | PermaLink Reed on Metaphors Is like a _____ on _____.David Reed has written an insightful insightful short piece on the limitations (and inevitability) of scientific metaphors. For example:
10/31/2002 08:09:44 AM | PermaLink
Wednesday, October 30, 2002 Scientific FiltersBryan Field-Elliot of NetMeme responds to some bloggery about Stephen Wolfram by pointing us to an article by Michael Shermer (editor of Skeptic) in Scientific American that wonders why Wolfram is getting far more attention than an equally implausible-sounding theory from James Carter.
Yet the article has already pointed to the screening method: Feynman called Wolfram "astonishing" and Wolfram was the youngest person ever to win a MacArthur "genius" award, whereas Carter "has beeen an abalone diver, gold miner, filmmaker, cave digger, repairman, inventor and owner-operator of a trailer park." That doesn't mean, of course, that his theory of "circlons" is wrong. But the screening process is probably working pretty well: Carter published and no one paid much attention. If you're going to pay full attention to every publication, you don't have much of a filtering system. What Shermer is talking about is probably better called a "second look," and they're important, too. (And, inevitably, this discussion should send us scuttling back to Kuhn who shows that "conservativism" in science isn't a political choice but a requirement for there to be science at all: science can only proceed within a paradigm.) 10/30/2002 10:33:58 AM | PermaLink Hellish QuestionMy son Nathan, 11, yesterday asked:
He worked out an answer, but I enjoyed the question more. As did he. 10/30/2002 10:12:09 AM | PermaLink Google is KMAdina Levin makes the case that a sufficiently usable search engine that has indexed a sufficiently large text base — i.e., Google — in effect is a KM system. Yup. In short: If you know where things are, you don't ever have to clean up. (One caveat: This works when you know exactly what you're looking for, but browsing a taxonomy is helpful when you don't.) 10/30/2002 09:19:22 AM | PermaLink Contest: When Tivo RulesA Mini-Bogus Contest: Now that Tivo has taken over our home — last night it deposed our atomic clock, frog-marching it out the door — how might this jealous god recast old programs in its image? For example:
And while we're on the subject, what's up with "I Love Lucy" as a title? Doesn't that imply that Desi Arnaz thought he was the star? How pathetic is that! 10/30/2002 08:41:54 AM | PermaLink
Tuesday, October 29, 2002 Law v. LeewayMichael Fleming responds to the article in my newsletter about leeway with this quotation:
Lovely. Thanks. 10/29/2002 10:44:37 AM | PermaLink On the RadioI'll be talking on the radio today about why I want to have hot monkey sex with Google. This is the first of what I hope will be a continuing series of tech commentary for WBUR's "Here and Now," carried by 44 stations. My piece will be on at 12:20pm. Come listen to me make a fool of myself. Again. (Here's a link. You'll need the Real Player to hear the piece.) 10/29/2002 10:38:48 AM | PermaLink On the RoadYes, I'm on the road, but in about as anti-Kerouackian way as possible — fly in at night, stay at a Sheraton, watch TV, give a talk, leave the next morning. I don't think this qualifies me as a Dharma Bum. I just gave a keynote at a conference on integration (think KM, portals, XML) put on by the Delphi Group. The conference is in Reston, VA, and has drawn people from around the country and even overseas, yet another anecdotal indicator that the conference business may be springing back. (Since I make much of my living as a speaker, this is of more than academic interest to me.) Delphi surprise-inducted me this morning into their League of Honorees (I didn't quite catch the name of the group). I was in a post-speaking Zone of Confusion and missed the details, but I think we get capes and fight crime. (No, but seriously, I appreciate the honor.) Anyway, it will be a Day of Light Blogging for me because I'm traveling. Do carry on. 10/29/2002 10:37:24 AM | PermaLink
Monday, October 28, 2002 I am the Egg ManLet there be no doubt: In Kate Bulkley's excellent article in The Guardian about blogging and wifi, I am Mr. Laptop. 10/28/2002 02:14:07 PM | PermaLink Udell on Google Addresses and ENUMJon Udell uses my blog about the phone number trick at Google to talk about what happens when what used to be public but obscure becomes public and easily accessible. He also mentions the IETF ENUM initiative "which seeks a mapping between telephone numbers and the DNS." The official IETF white paper on usage scenarios of this mapping says:
I don't know enough to have an opinion. If you do, lemme know. 10/28/2002 10:54:56 AM | PermaLink Redesigning the Peace Symbol 2Frank Paynter responds to my blog about designing a new peace symbol:
Nice connecting of peace and freedom, but I think the new symbol does have to be scribblable by people who recently ingested 100-250mgs of hallucinogens, just as a practical matter. 10/28/2002 10:37:02 AM | PermaLink Let's Keep Things ClearFox proposes televised coverage of arms inspectors in Iraq so "Viewers could decide for themselves if the inspectors are being allowed to do their jobs"? A pyramid scheme for "Women Helping Women" sweeps the nation? A movie featuring stupid, gross stunts is #1 at the box office? Please, people, this is what we have the Web for! 10/28/2002 07:34:02 AM | PermaLink
Sunday, October 27, 2002 New Issue of JOHOI've published a new issue of my free newsletter:
Free subscription, no ads, no spam...you know, it wouldn't kill you to sign up for it. 10/27/2002 11:47:27 AM | PermaLink Norlin RespondsEric Norlin responds to the article in my newsletter on the DigitalID World conference. [Note: Eric reports that he's having trouble with his permalinks.] Also, you don't want to miss his response to my peacenik blog. 10/27/2002 11:45:02 AM | PermaLink Redesigning PeaceStanton Finley has sent a message to a bunch o' bloggers and others asking us to re-design the peace symbol. The old peace symbol represents the letters "ND" in semaphor language. Since Nuclear Disarmament no longer tops the peacenik agenda, we could indeed use a new symbol.
I am refraining from suggesting my proposed "Forgive me" hand gesture, but I have no other ideas. Suggestions anyone?
Stan also asks us for a "manifesto" of peace. Here's mine. (Prepare for Hippie Resurgence Syndrome.)
10/27/2002 07:40:33 AM | PermaLink Jock Gill on KrugmanJock Gill, Clinton's original tech advisor, has posted a column on a piece he thinks is missing from Paul Krugman's essay. Jock agrees with Krugman about the economic divide: the top 1% of Americans have doubled their share of the nation's wealth in the past 30 years, while the median income has grown only 10% in the same time. But he disputes Krugman's claim that "Gilded Ages and Gilded Plutocrats, not relative middle-class income equality, are the norm in American life." Not before the Robber Barons, Jock says, because there weren't yet corporations that "never die and do not vote, yet have the full legal and constitutional rights, and wealth that never dies even when the humans do." The result is a corrupt political system that favors the rich. Here's why I'm depressed: We don't care. We somehow believe we're in an economy of abundance so the fact that the top 1% have the wealth of the bottom 40% doesn't matter to us so long as we feel ok about ourselves. And when was the last time you heard a politician talk about the poor as anything except a burden to the rest of us? Or look beyond our borders to see the effect of our life on others, much less accept a moral responsibility to help raise up the world? Except when Paul Wellstone spoke. Speaking of Big Lies, Brad DeLong does a ripsnortin' job on Chuck Grassley's letter to the editor in the NY Times. Ironically, the letter purports to set the record straight about who gets what in the Bush tax cut plan, but Brad exposes the letter is a pack of untruths. (Thanks to Scott Rosenberg for the link.) 10/27/2002 07:14:07 AM | PermaLink
Saturday, October 26, 2002 Werbach on DecentralizationKevin Werbach has a terrific article on decentralization at news.com:
This is the theme of his upcoming Supernova conference. (I'm going.) 10/26/2002 10:23:08 AM | PermaLink More on Google URLsPeter Kaminski responds to my neologizing "Google URLs" ("A search query that puts a page at the top of Google's returns list"):
You make a page robust, according to this paper, by running their free, open source software that adds a "lexical signature" about five words long, a hash of your document content. People can find your page by searching for its signature, so even if you move the page, Google (or whatever) will find it for you. The problem is that the signature isn't necessarily memorable. For example, the signature of www.cluetrain.com is "html intranetworked uznajut happytalk stemmens" whereas its Google URL is "cluetrain." Norm Jenson points out that (as I'd blogged) when you search on your phone number at Google (in quotes, no hyphens) and it finds your address and gives you a link to a Yahoo! map of where you live, Yahoo also lets you generate code you stick on your web page to take friends and burglars to your site. 10/26/2002 09:01:44 AM | PermaLink Congressional SenseSeth Johnson points out that two senators, on this sad day for that institution, "are starting to show some truly helpful cluefulness" :
He and Chris Cox (R-Calif) are sponsoring a bill to make this idea all legal and everything. (For the record, my wife and I went door-to-door a couple of times for Wyden during his first political campaign. We thus feel, in a Stallman "Gnu Linux" sort of way, that the bill really ought to be referred to as the Wyden-Cox-Weinberger-Geller Law.) 10/26/2002 08:50:08 AM | PermaLink Paul WellstoneSenator Paul Wellstone's death has narrowed our political vision yet further. We're down to about what can be seen through the sights of a gun. He was a mensch. 10/26/2002 06:57:41 AM | PermaLink
Friday, October 25, 2002 The Palladium ParadoxMIT Technology Review just posted a column of mine on why we should be scared of Microsoft Palladium. 10/25/2002 11:26:34 AM | PermaLink News - Freudian and eCelebrityI was at the Newseum, a site that thumbnails newspaper front pages from around the world. (Thanks, Dan Pink.) I clicked on the Australia's Courier Mail and saw their tag line: Unfortunately, I freudianly misread it as: Two letters can make the difference between marketing and truth, eh? And while we're discussing news about news, J.D. Lasica has asked various digeratti what they read for news. For extra fun, try to guess the answers the ecelebs give; I bet you won't be far wrong. (Kudos to Henry Jenkins for mentioning TheOnion as a news source.) 10/25/2002 09:23:30 AM | PermaLink Wolfram ExplainishedAdina Levin, having read my ramble about Stephen Wolfram's presentation at PopTech, recommends Kurzweil's appreciation of him, which she has summarized here. The Kurzweil piece is well-written and leave us humanities majors behind about a third of the way in. There's also a good article — again only two-thirds beyond my comprehension — by Steven Weinberg in the NY Review of Books. Steve Yost writes pithily about reading Wolfram. He says:
10/25/2002 09:14:06 AM | PermaLink
Thursday, October 24, 2002 Scary Google1. Go to google.com 10/24/2002 01:32:58 PM | PermaLink Bowling ColumbineI've posted a review of Michael Moore's "Bowling for Columbine" over at BlogCritics.org. I found the movie entertaining and righteous but willing to sacrifice coherence for the sake of a good stunt. 10/24/2002 09:54:21 AM | PermaLink
Wednesday, October 23, 2002 Googling for PeopleThe debate continues over how to solve the DNS mess. The mess exists because there are more people than there are names. So, who gets davidweinberger.com? (Hint: I didn't.) Not to mention who gets Disney.com, Schwarzenegger.com, and PamelaAnderson.com. Dan Gillmor a few months ago said that Google had solved the problem, at least for now. If I want to find my pal Bob Smith, the Mulholland furrier, I google him with a query like "bob smith furrier mulholland." Very likely, Google will get it right. So, why not build on this? Google could enable us to fill out a standard form with fields for name, email, web pages, parents, town, high school, college, jobs, employers, hobbies, publications, summer camps, etc. Then add a tab to Google.com called "People." Weight the form very heavily when searching for names, so that if you searched for "david weinberger herricks," the Google engine would notice that "herricks" is listed on my personal form as my high school, and thus would move my web pages (the ones I've listed on the form) way up the list. No one besides me would ever see my form itself. Google has the heft to pull this off. If you know someone at Google, wanna pass this along? Alternatively, you might want to point out the gaping hole in my logic that makes this idea not just implausible but actually humiliating. Either way, thank you. 10/23/2002 03:39:25 PM | PermaLink Google URLProposed neologism:
[Note: Vernor Vinge gave out Google URLs in his talk at PopTech, as reported, but didn't use the term itself.] 10/23/2002 09:53:06 AM | PermaLink Bricklin on a Remarkable AuntDan Bricklin has a touching appreciation of his aunt, Hinda Gross, who died last Friday. It's a reminder of how remarkable we can make our lives if we choose to. 10/23/2002 09:37:53 AM | PermaLink
Tuesday, October 22, 2002 The Future of CompetitionScott Kirsner writes in yesterday's Boston Globe about two Boston-area companies coming out with anti-spam products. The founder of one of the companies, Spamnix, was one of the founders of the other company, InterMute. (InterMute is best known for AdSubtract.) Even though the Spamnix guy signed a non-compete, he claims it only pertains to ad-blocking software, not spam. Nevertheless, it's easy to imagine InterMute suing, if only to slow the launch of competitive software. Nah:
Now, that's the way it ought to be. [Disclosure: Paul English at InterMute is an old friend of mine and a sometime business partner. I've been a beta for his upcoming spam product, SpamSubtract.] 10/22/2002 07:19:33 AM | PermaLink
Monday, October 21, 2002 Letter to FCC: Fail FastA bunch of netty women and men have sent a letter to FCC Chair Michael "Son of" Powell. The basic message is: When the telecommunications industry goes bankrupt, don't try to resuscitate the corpse. Let it go. Its infrastructure and the business model based on it are obsolete. It can't be fixed. Instead, let the market bring forth a new era of innovation and connectivity, let a hundred flowers bloom, let the moon enter the house of Aquarius, etc. The alternative is that we sink billions into companies that are doing everything they can to prevent telecommunications - the whole schmear of telephones, cable, broadband and the stuff we haven't invented yet - from doing what it wants to do: go digital, go IP, go everywhere. The letter is posted at http://www.netparadox.com. The issue is important because the existing industry is going to use every weapon it can find, including the blunt instrument of "It's the only way we can defeat the terrorists" in order to maintain its grip. So, wanna help spread the word? 10/21/2002 03:09:40 PM | PermaLink How to Be Popular ExplainedI learned a lesson from Ernie the Attorney at PopTech. Which should you bring to a conference if you want to be incredibly popular?
10/21/2002 10:03:56 AM | PermaLink Why I Conference BlogMore than a couple of people noticed me and Ernie the Attorney blogging next to each other from PopTech. "Why?" they asked. "Why are you so focused on blogging the conference?" Durn fine question to which I have less than durn fine answers. 1. I blog conferences for the same reasons that I blog in general: I don't know. 2. blogging forces me to pay attention, just as note-taking in general does. 3. Insofar as I'm engaged by what the speakers are saying, I want to be talking with them. Since conferences insist on maintaining a distinction between "panelist" and "audience member," blogging lets me participate. Best of all, I always get the last word. But why real-time blog since post-session blogging enables me to reflect on what was said and write more thoughtfully? But post-session blogging means that after a full day at an intellectually intense conference like PopTech, followed by an intellectually intense dinner, followed by an intellectually intense dessert, I have to go back to my hotel room and write a @#$%!-ing blog entry. So, real-time blogging is better for me but worse for my readers. And, dear readers, isn't that really what it's all about? 10/21/2002 09:46:40 AM | PermaLink
Sunday, October 20, 2002 Stephen Wolfram[From PopTech] I'm supposed to blog an hour with Wolfram? Ay caramba! I'm going to write some general comments, and then I'll post my running notes. Comments I haven't read Wolfram's book and I am in no position to evaluate the truth or usefulness of what he said. I hear what he says through a couple of filters. His general thesis - that structures as complex as the universe itself can be generated from incredibly simple rules - resonates. It's the basic claim of chaos theory. And, for me it helps get around my lifelong discomfort with the nature of scientific laws. The idea that the universe is governed by laws is too clearly an application of the governance paradigm to the physical universe. And, while Wolfram's theory gets us past this, in the same way, of course, Wolfram applies the computer paradigm to the universe. And the fact that his paradigm maps to the paradigm of current technology isn't just a coincidence. Wolfram's presentation was surprisingly clear. I followed more than I'd thought, although I certainly got lost as he went on. Unfortunately, I got lost as he got more and more interesting. I hate when that happens. Ultimately, of course, the question is the extent to which the rules describe the universe or generated the universe. Not having read the book, I strongly suspect the answer is that the question is phrased entirely wrong. I'm definitely gonna buy the book and pretend to read it. Anyway, on to the running notes... [Ernie the Attorney's take on Wolfram is very funny.] Notes... John Benditt began by summarizing Stephen Wolfram's idea: "The entire universe is the output of an algorithm the size of a four or five line computer program." Wolfram physically looks a bit like Jason Alexander, but that's pretty much where the similarity ends. He's British and, of course, some type of genius. He came to his idea while writing programs that try to break down into primitives the things humans want to do (e.g., Mathematica). Suppose you could do the same for nature. What kinds of computer programs might be relevant? From writing mathematical programs, he thought it would have to be quite complex. But suppose you look at very simple programs, one line of code, even chosen at random. Pick the simplest programs and see what they do. So, he looked at "cellular automata." A simple starting point and a simple rule can create complex patterns. There are 256 simple (8-bit) ceullular automata, so he decided to look at all of them. With rule 30, truly random patterns result. Very simple things go in and very complex things come out, which is against our normal intuition. So, he decided to point this new "telescope" at other phenomena. The same behavior occurs in a "vast array of systems." It wasn't noticed before because you need computers "and tools like Mathematica," and because it goes against our intuition. Why does the phenomenon happen? You need a new conceptual framework to explain that. All natural processes can be viewed as computations. Sometimes you know what the output will be ahead of time, e.g., with cellular automaton designed to do squares or to find primes. But there can be universal cellular automata that emulate other, dedicated automata, by being given different input. The principle of computational equivalence: Any system whose behavior doesn't look obviously simple to us will turn out to be performing a computation similar to any other." [I may have blown that. The pool is getting over my head.] That is, if you look at a system with only simple rules, it will show behavior that's simple and regular. But if you make the rules for the system just a tiny bit more complicated, you jump to having a system that is as sophisticated as any other. This principle yields predictions: A system like this should be able to do universal computation. And it can. You wouldn't expect to find this in nature since human-made universal computers are highly complex. It suggests that there should be lots of systems in nature capable of sophisticated computation. This explains why Cellular Automaton #30 looks complicated to us. Imagine a system and a observer who's trying to decode what the system is doing. The PCE says that in many cases, the behavior of the system will be as complex as the systems inside the observer. That's why #30 seems complex. This leads (somehow) to the Principle Computational Irreducibility. E.g., we can figure out where the earth will be in its orbit 1M years from now just by plugging nubers into a formula. But in some cases, the only way to work out will happen is to run the system, to do the experiment. That defines a limit from what one can expect to get from science. For example: "The Weather has a mind of its own." The PCE says there's some sense to this in that fluid turbulence in the atmospher is doing as sophisticated a calculation as what's hapening in our minds. Q&A with John Benditt Q: You postulate that there is a rule for the universe itself. That seems preposterous because the universe is enormously complex. Defend yourself. A: I might not believe that had I not seen all that the programs I was studying could do. Physics gets more complex the smaller the object of study gets. But that doesn't have to be the case. A very simple program might be able to produce all the complexity. What might that program might be like? If the program is small, then the things immediately visible in our universe can't be visible in that program. Also, there has to be as little as possible built into that program. Cellular automata already have too much built in: it has the notion of cells arranged in space and that the color of the cell is different from the cell itself. In the end, one doesn't need anything except space. [This is so similar to Hegel's Logic which generates the universe simply from Being. "Sein. Reine Sein." and we're off and running.] I ultimately suspect one doesn't need anything more than pure space to generate the universe. But what is space? In traditional science you don't get to ask that question. But my guess is that space ultimately is a collection of discrete points and all we know is how those points are connected to other points. Q: Isn't this at odd with common sense and 300 years of science? A: Yes. Newton and Einstein both see space as a background without its own properties. Einstein explored the idea that space is all there is later in his life. Space is a collection of nodes where every node is connected to three others. So how does time work? Traditionally, time has simply been another dimension. But when you think about programs, time operates very differently than space. I think time is much closer to programs. For cellular automata, every cell gets incremented in sync. But there's probably no universal clock. So, maybe only one place in the universe gets updated at a time. It seems simultaneous because until I get updated, I can't tell if you've been updated. Some known features of physics can be explained this way (e.g., relativity). "What's encouraging is that from so little one gets out so much." So, if we go all the way, we may be able to define the universe in one small program. "It won't be as exciting as one might think because when the universe ran this program, it took 10B years to run the program." And the Principle of Computational Irreducibility means that we can't catch up: you have to actually run the program. Q: What is the experimental program that will let us find this program? A: The core of my new science is a type of abstract science. If the rule is simple enough, we could just search for it. Search through the simplest one trillion rules. Some will be promising but, e.g., won't have time. Many elaborate tools need to be buit. Questions from the audience Q: Is this falsifiable? A: The core of what I've tried to do is more like mathematics than natural science. Falsifiability isn't that relevant for mathematics. Math is tested on whether it's useful in modeling the physical world. He expects there will be thousands of papers in ten years proposing very simple rules. Wolfram himself has proposed some models for fluid turbulence that are surprising. Q: What effects does your thinking have on fields like philosophy. A: There hasn't been much time for people to integrate it into other fields. But his book does talk philosophy and is already making an impact on philosophy, e.g., the effect of computational irreducibility has implications for Free Will. Q: What about the size of the initial conditions? In order to get universality, you can't start with one bit on. What's the number you need? Randomness is the most complex thing. When you come across complexity, you may be looking at it wrong and there may be a simpler way of looking at it. E.g., fractals may be complex and beautiful but result from a single line program. A: The idea is that you can characterize the complexity of an entity only by looking at the complexity of the program that generated it. Q: Count the amount of computer time you dissipate, not just the initial state, you can get complexity. Q: You show that we see simple patterns at various scales. A: Complex issue. Most CA are not on all the same scales. (Fractals are.) ...[and here my attention and understanding ended] 10/20/2002 12:08:28 PM | PermaLink Alexander Shulgin[From PopTech] Alexander Shulgin, the chemist who invented ecstasy, carefully creates new molecules and then more carefully ingests them on the grounds that there's no other way to see the effect on the mind. He said wants to raise the question of the mind rather than the brain. But he never quite got to it, at least not explicitly. Shulgin does not believe that computers will ever imitate the mind, although they'll be good at imitating the brain. "The mind process is what I'm primarily interested in." He's a charming presenter. Just when you think drugs have smoothed off the edges of his mind, he comes through with enough detailed chemistry to remind you that he is in fact a rigorous scientifist. He gave a personal accounting of drugs he has known and loved, although he talked about them in their chemical names ("dimethoxyladida" is about as close as I can get) so it came out as a list without punctuation. He railed against the "analog drug bill" that says that if a drug is "substantially similar" (vague enough for you?) to a schedule one drug (one with no medical use and a high potential for abuse), then it shall be treated as a schedule one drug. He estimates that there are 200 known psychedelics. Given the growth rate, there will be maybe 2,000 in the next 10-15 years. Now, he says, he's ready to begin his talk. (The clock has run out.) When he first took mescaline he realized there were parts of himself he had not been in contact with. Then he took another drug with just a small chemical difference and found important differences; for example, the flower he'd meditated on when on peyote he now tore apart to see what's inside. (He talks about drugs the way others talk about wines, I think on purpose.) A small brain effect can have a large mind effect. He ended by describing a new molecule. "Here's a compound that's never been made. A whole new area of chemistry...I've not tasted it yet. I don't know what the interesting properties are. ... It doesn't know me either." So you have to do a careful introduction. "You start with a few micrograms. In case you make a mistake." There's an unlimited number of these. He finds this fascinating "and wants to do this for the rest of my life." Fascinating person. Needs more time, and maybe an interview format. (I heard him and his wife on Terry Gross'ss Fresh Air a few months ago, and she drove the interview masterfully.) Soundbyte: "I found the 2,4,5 orientation superb." 10/20/2002 10:25:18 AM | PermaLink Vernor Vinge on Early Post-Humans[From PopTech] Vinge, the science fiction writer, talked about nutty stuff, presenting seriously insane ideas with the right mix of conviction and humor to suspend our disbelief. Vinge began by giving us a Google URL, i.e., telling us to find a site by looking up "vinge technological singularity" in Google. That leads to a page about "the singularity," the extropian notion that "...we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth." What will life be like for those before and after the change? This lead him to talk, with only a glimmer of a smile, about life for the "early post-humans." "The surface of the earth may not turn out to be the best place to think." Maybe we'll have to seek out better places. (Better in what way? Better reading light?) Vinge points us to Hans Moravec's "Pigs in Cyberspace" that suggests that we convert the universe into a place that computes. [What a lead in to Wolfram, who speaks in the next session.] Now for the next step. Vinge suggests that the "principle of mediocrity," along with Occam's Razor and entropic rules, are ways of getting answers when you don't have facts. The Principle of Mediocrity says that if you don't know what's going on, assume you're an average case. E.g., the earth isn't special, so the planets probably don't revolve around us. Moravec's conclusion is that the principle of mediocrity says that it is almost certain that we are ourselves living in a simulation. Says Vinge: "This is a moderately logical argment, especially if you are into this sort of thing" (i.e., if you're a nutcase). But is this an "operationally significant issue"? Vinge says we might actually be able to tell if we're living in a simulation by "looking for the jaggies." (The "jaggies" is the stairstep effect you get with straight lines painted in inadequate resolution.) Perhaps, he suggests, the jaggies are the quantum mechanical anomalies. Apparently there are physicists who take this seriously. Great fun. 10/20/2002 09:18:16 AM | PermaLink Sherry Turkle on Identity[From PopTech] Sherry Turkle, who did the missionary work in the effect of social computing on the sense of self, talked on the psychology of artificial worlds. Brilliantly. In particular, she talked on the natuure of authenticity. The old concept, she says, doesn't hold. "We need to take our new relationships on their own terms." And these terms include accepting that the digital world's perfection is teaching us a new sense of imperfect human perfection. The number one question journalists ask Turkle is if children will come to love their objects more than their parents. Turkle instead is interested in how love might change. What kinds of relationships with technology are appropriate? What is a relationship? What models of the self, intention and emotion are suggested by our current technologies? What habits of mind? Turkle said that we think about our minds as machines more than ever (as in robots and psychopharmacology). She's concerned that with the shift to a computational model of the mind, there's been a diminishment of our appreciation of ambivalence (i.e., holding more than one idea in your head). In artificial worlds, the rules are too clear. But resistance is coming from a changing notion of human pefection. We need richer language for talking about our increasingly rich relationships with artifacts. [This is a topic near and dear to me.] During the Q&A she said that rather than asking about the effect of video games on kids, we should be talking about what habits of mind games inculcate. Killer soundbyte: "Windows is a powerful metaphor for the distributed self" Eliot Soloway, the moderator, argued for giving every kid a palm computer as opposed to a PC because the palm is cheaper and because, unlike a desktop machine, the student can own it without sharing it with the rest of the school. 10/20/2002 08:50:10 AM | PermaLink
Saturday, October 19, 2002 Warren Spector and Amy Jo Kim on Games[From PopTech] I've spent many, many hours playing the games Warren Spector has created. Deus Ex, for example, broke ground in providing an open, interactive playground. Also, things blew up real good. Spector says gaming isn't what we think. It's not usually a solitary activity. And violent games aren't just about violence but also about thinking, planning, acting and reacting. Finally, games are not apart from the real world but are part of the real world, Spector says we'll see more user-generated content. "Will Wright [The Sims] is the best game designer in the business." And we'll see more "virtual affiliation." Games, Spector says, can be art. His are commercial and reality-based, he says, but they can be art. The exciting new trend is "shared authorship," as opposed to games in which you decipher the single author's intention. Spector finds Grand Theft Auto 3 "reprehensivle" in its content but the game play is revolutionary. "The negotiated narrative" is unique to games as a mass medium. Spector gets chills thinking about the way in which games will allow us to assume personae, interact and grow. Plus, the screen shots from Deus Ex 2 look great. Soundbyte: "Our tools are pathetic. Try having a character smile in a game. It's insanely hard. We have four control points. Try getting a tear to role down a character's cheek." Amy Jo Kim is now at a stealth startup called "there." "What's going on in gaming today is what you're going to see in the rest of technology in 3-5 years." She laid out the basics of online gaming and pointed out how complex and rich the social networks around online games typically become, including "self-organizing fan ecosystems." She told us about the development of The Sims. Very interesting. For example, Maxi (the Sims' creator) noticed that people started telling one another stories about their characters. So Maxi facilitated this by allowing users to upload their stories for sharing with others. During the Q&A, moderated by Dan Gillmor, Kim and Spector disagreed over the future of fan sites. Maxi (The Sims) has encouraged fan sites and the degelopment of new content for their games. Spector thinks that as gaming brands grow, fan sites will increasingly be attacked by game makers. 10/19/2002 01:46:39 PM | PermaLink Bloggers Blogging PopTechJD is blogging the conference here. And Ernie the Attorney (sitting right next to me) is blogging it realtime here - he's doing a great job. Dan Gillmor is doing "running notes" here. 10/19/2002 11:27:49 AM | PermaLink Alvy Ray Smith on Digital Actors[From PopTech] Alvy Ray Smith has won two Oscars for technical achievement and was the founder of Pixar. He gave a terrific presentation on a single idea: "The simulation of human actors will not happen at any known time in any known way." Smith addressed the question in a far more interesting way than I'd expected. Yes, says Smith, there are technical issues that will be overcome via Moore's Law. But, the more important issue is that acting is an art. Using as his reference Antonio Demassio's "The Feeling of What Happens: Body and Emotion in the Making of Consciousness", Smith made the case that machines can't have consciousness and thus can't do what actors do. They therefore can't generate graphical representations of convincing actors: There can't be a "React to the De Niro character's confession of adultery" subroutine that results in the good acting that Streep would do because that would require consciousness. Ray thinks that in his lifetime we will see a convincing feature film that's entirely digital, but it will be done by digitally representing a live actor. (In fact, Pixar hires animators based on their acting ability.) Killer soundbyte #1, on the assumption that we'll build conscious machines: "It's a leap of faith that many people here are willing to take, but I call it faith-based science." Killer soundbyte #2 on why Pixar has so far backed off of representing humans: "We have a word for almost human but not quite: It's 'monster.'" Killer soundbyte #3: "Reality begins at 80 million polygons." Per frame. Toy Story had 5-6M polygons per frame, and Toy Story 2 had double that. "Then you have to model reality and map it onto those polygons." Woody had 100 controls in face. Al, the most complex guy in Toy Story 2, had a thousand. For an accurate human representations it might be hundreds of thousands. This session alone (pairing Ray and Stookey) would make the conference worthwhile. The presentations and the Q&A session were thought-provoking, centered on issues that matter, funny and moving. (Kudos to John Sculley's moderating.) 10/19/2002 11:05:37 AM | PermaLink Paul Stookey Sings[From PopTech] Paul Stookey, the Paul of Peter, Paul and Mary, opened Saturday morning with a great set. "Virtual Party" is intensely clever and "Love Rules" is genuinely moving. Killer soundbyte: "The sweetest thing I've learned on the computer is lower case." 10/19/2002 09:49:08 AM | PermaLink
Friday, October 18, 2002 The Experience Economy[From PopTech] Joe Pine, the author of "The Experience Economy," tells us that "experiences are a distinct form of economic output, as distinct from services as services are distinct from goods." He takes as his example the American Girl store in Chicago where they don't just sell American Girl dolls but provide an entire entertainment experience with a stage show and a perfectly dainty little world to play-act in. I've seen a video of the store and it certainly seemed like a great example of selling experiences, but also seemed like a sign of the coming collapse of civilization. That is, it made Davey-kins wanna pwuke. Pine admirably includes a discussion of the objection to his theme. He says that when he was teaching in The Netherlands, every time he gave a talk, someone would say, "You Americans...you like your experiences phony and packaged, but we like ours real." Pine replies that because all experience is internal, it is all equally real. This is pretty unsatisfying, so he continues, quite amusingly, to point out that all of The Netherlands is unnatural. It's below freaking sea level, after all. [Nevertheless, there is a difference between cultivating the earth and creating a calculated environment intended to simulate another human-made environment; there is a difference between The Netherlands and the "Dutch village" at Disney Epcot. - DW] Pines ends with the good point that businesses can't give you authentic experiences because businesses want to get your money. But his advice is "Get real," which raises more questions than it answers. But his half hour is up. Pines is a good speaker and looking at modern commerce as often being about the creating of an experience is a useful lens. But, in listening to him I find myself pulling back precisely because of the issue he raised at the end: authenticity. At just about any restaurant in France, you'll have a great experience because the chefs and the waiters are committed to providing excellent food and excellent service in a space well designed for the social act of eating. They are focused on the food and the service, not on the experience. On the other hand, at The Olive Garden in the US, the food, service and space is in the service of creating a particular experience, that of a lusty, rustic Italian restaurant. If we no longer can tell the difference because "everything is an experience," then we ought to start carrying our own laugh tracks with us. Oh, and theme music. 10/18/2002 04:38:33 PM | PermaLink Worlds of Amusement[From PopTech] The afternoon led off with two interesting presentations, moderated by MIT Good Guy, Henry Jenkins. Lauren Rabinovitz talked about the social importance of amusement parks at the turn of the previous century when there were 1,500 of them. By 1920, 75% had closed. She presented lots of interesting ideas about a phenomenon I know nothing about. For example, rides weren't at the heart of them at first, in part because the mechanics weren't sophisticated enough. But when rides did come to prominence, they enabled people to reverse the usual human-machine relationship, giving themselves over to the machine. Gerard Jones has a great resume as a comic book writer, video game designer and lots more; his current book is "Killing Monsters." Movies, he says, always created world liberated from physics and from propriety. Comic books create a different type of world. He discusses both in light of what social and psychological roles they enable readers/viewers to play: "the second self," "the other," etc. Also lots of good insights. E.g., in the '50s, the layout of comic books became much more rationalized and linearity, matching the political and social change. He said we don't yet know what the form of video games will be, but many games are ominious, playing on a fear of what danger is lurking behind the door. [Definitely. But also the chaotic, in-public mayhem of Grand Theft Auto 3. Not to mention The Sims.] 10/18/2002 02:51:56 PM | PermaLink Howard Rheingold[From PopTech] Dressed in a hippie's idea of respectable - purple pants, multihued shirt, sun belt buckle, painted klogs - Rheingold eloquently makes the case that hopeful and unpredictable phenomena emerge from simple technology. His example is, of course, "smart mobs": the social organization that springs up around cell-phone text messaging. Much hinges, he says, on the emergence of trust and mechanisms for managing reputations. Rheingold ended by asking: Will those mobile technologies be shaped by users or will we be tuend back into consumers? During the Q&A, he said that online is a great place for people to express themselves but a bad place to make decisions. He also said that rule-less places are fine, but some sites need rules, e.g., no personal attacks allowed. (Both points conform with my experience.) Buzz Bruggeman just asked Rheingold if real-time blogging and other smart-mobbish behavior might have a chilling effect on things like conferences where bloggers are blogging while speakers are speaking. Howard's response: "I would think it would have a chilling effect on bullshit." Laughter and applause. 10/18/2002 11:43:54 AM | PermaLink Bali Help, 1:1Stavros the Wonder Chicken has been blogging about his friend who was badly hurt in the Bali bombing. On his home page you'll find a way to chip in some money to help defray his friend's medical costs. 10/18/2002 11:23:32 AM | PermaLink Kurzweil's Paradigm[From PopTech]: Kurzweil is an excellent speaker. Wicked smart. Primarily he made the case that the rate of innovation, and the rate of "paradigm shifts" (in quotes because he doesn't mean the term in Kuhn's sense) is increasing. Then he paints a picture of life in ten and twenty years: By 2010, computers will disappear will write directly to the retina and we'll be able to dip into virtual reality whenever we want. By 2029, we will have reversed engineered the human brain, and nanobots will do the red pill thing of putting our brain fully into the virtual world. And, of course, we will have computers large enough to hold an entire set of data about a brain. The brain is hardware, and by 2029, says Kurzweil, we'll have deciphered the brain's software. I got to ask him my question from the audience. I said last summer I stood in a wheatfield that 100M stalks of wheat. If we take left-leaning is on and right-leaning as off, for 5 minutes, that wheatfield completely represented Casear's brain state when he was stabbed. So, I asked, it seems to me that hw-sw is entirely the wrong paradigm for the brain, intelligence, consciousness. (Unfortunately, I chose not to draw the explicit connection, in order to save time, and thus sounded like a lunatic.) So, I asked Kurzweil, how confident he is that by 2029 - given the rate of p aradigm change he pointed to - the sw-hw paradigm of the brain will still be in effect. Kurzweil replied by distinguishing intelligence and consciousness. Whether machines will be conscious is a philosophical question that he stays away from. [Well, not in The Age of Spiritual Machines.] But, he said, he'll make a political prediction: we will take computers as conscious, "because if we don't, they'll get mad at us." Plus, he said, our consciousness will be augmented by computers so the line will be fuzzier.v I remain convinced that the brain is no more hardware and software than the liver is. The issue is that software is symbolic. The eight light switches in my house have on and off states, but they only become a byte of information if I choose to take them that way. And the specific number the byte represents depends on my deciding to read from the top floor down, bottom up, east to west or west to east. A computer that mirrors the brain state only does so because we have supplied symbolic meaning to it. It thus is a picture of a brain but is not a thinking machine. That's what I think, anyway Killer soundbyte from Kurzweil: The genomic information about the brain is 12 million bytes of compressed data, "smaller than Microsoft Word." 10/18/2002 11:06:02 AM | PermaLink At PopTechI'm at PopTech in purposefully picturesque Camden, Maine. We're five minutes from the official opening. I'm sitting next to Ernie the Attorney, the webloggin' lawyer, part of a delightful dinner party last night. I drove up with Pito Salas, which was a total treat. I also got to talk with people like Howard Rheingold, Dan Gillmor, Buzz Bruggeman, etc. etc. (I hate doing lists like this because I have a terrible memory and thus end up slighting people I care about.) So, so far I'm a happy guy. (Not to mention that they've got wifi. Woohoo!) PopTech is a techno-humanist conference, this year focused on "artificial worlds," a topic I will undoubtedly find annoying in the best sense. I hope not to do continuous blogging. For me it gets in the way of listening. See you later. 10/18/2002 09:05:10 AM | PermaLink
Thursday, October 17, 2002 KM NonsenseTom Wilson has a kickass article on knowledge management in Information Research. This is from the abstract:
10/17/2002 10:59:14 AM | PermaLink Gen. Zinni on Why the Iraqi War Will Be Harder than W ThinksSalon links to a frank keynote given by retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni. Zinni is the "former head of Central Command for U.S. forces in the Middle East, who has worked recently as the State Department's envoy to the region with a mission to encourage talks between Palestinians and Israelis." The talk is surprising for two reason: First, it is quite critical of the Bush administration for being naive about a war with Iraq. Second, someone apparently did a search and replace on the article, turning every instance of "question" into "Ambassardor Edward S. Walker." As a result, we get sentences that begin "The Ambassador Edward S. Walker becomes how to sort out your priorities," and a question from the audience becomes:
(Salon is also running an interesting interview with him for paid subscribers.) 10/17/2002 09:31:44 AM | PermaLink Blog Mottos (= Blottos?)Bryan Field-Elliot of PingID suggests at NetMeme some proverbs for our times. This has similarities to Gary Turner's Blogstickers, which I mention primarily so I can say: Great minds link alike. 10/17/2002 09:30:45 AM | PermaLink
Wednesday, October 16, 2002 A Blogger Code of UnProfessional Ethics
I love you, Doc. Some mighty fine blogging on this topic going on over at AKMA's place. For example, he writes: "When we’ve been most effectively seduced, we’re not aware of it ourselves." As they say in churches around the land: Bingo! Also, I am reminded of Chris Pirillo's Blogger's Manifesto from February '02 (as well as my parody of it). 10/16/2002 08:41:23 AM | PermaLink
Tuesday, October 15, 2002 Full DisclosureWhy I Can't Ever Tell the Truth about Microsoft, Ever To satisfy the requirements of the new Standards of Integrity and Professional Ethics for bloggers (for a discussion, see Dave, Doc and Mitch), I am hereby posting all the influences Microsoft has had on me, pro and con.
(PS: When Dave asks, "It's a matter of what kind of blogging we want -- do we want it to be sloppy or crisp," my answer is an emphatic yes.) 10/15/2002 08:20:35 PM | PermaLink A Poem by Ani DiFrancoChip just sent me this poem by Ani DiFranco that apparently she's reading at all her concerts now. SELF EVIDENT by Ani DiFranco
10/15/2002 02:22:22 PM | PermaLink Dept. of Pointless StatisticsAccording to Masha Geller's MediaPost column today, a report from WebMergers says that the dot-com failure rate has "declined dramatically":
And here's what I expect tomorrow's headline to be: Leisure Suits Dominate 21st Century Fashion Puhlease. 10/15/2002 08:40:53 AM | PermaLink Welcome Young Pink!Jessica Pink did just one thing yesterday: gave birth to baby Saul. The world's already a better place for it. Mazel tov to Dan, Jessica and the three little Pinks. 10/15/2002 08:23:52 AM | PermaLink If Marketing Invented Networking......we'd be measuring transmission speeds not in bits per second but in pages per hour. 10/15/2002 08:21:20 AM | PermaLink The Ad Microsoft Won't Let You SeeMicrosoft posted a dumbass "testimonial" from someone (by coincidence, an attractive woman...what are the odds of that?!) who recounts why she switched from the Mac to XP. Everything about this "real life" testimonial is phony, starting with the faux voice:
After the page had begun circulating through mailing lists ("Can't they find even one real person to give a testimonial?"), Microsoft deleted it. We can't know the cause, but we can only hope that Microsoft recognized that such an obviously bogus ploy works against them. Thank goodness for Google and its amazing feats of memory (= its cache). 10/15/2002 12:01:00 AM | PermaLink
Monday, October 14, 2002 Instant Idea Generator(Thanks to Ian Poynter.) 10/14/2002 10:55:40 AM | PermaLink Support Your Non-Local PeacenikMoveOn.com makes it absurdly easy to give money to the campaigns of some of those brave souls who voted against the Gulf of Saddam bill that gives America's Stupidest President a free hand to start a war. It'd be a particular shame if Paul Wellstone were to lose his Senate seat over this, giving the Republicans control of all branches of the government. 10/14/2002 10:50:26 AM | PermaLink New Isenberg NewsletterDavid Isenberg has published a new issue of his always excellent newsletter. In this one, you can read about "the future of voice telephony," which is not about talking pachyderms but a software product from Global IP Sound that uses the Internet to transmit calls and does so with higher-quality audio than you'll get on a "real" phone. 10/14/2002 08:33:30 AM | PermaLink
Sunday, October 13, 2002 Bryan Field-Elliot's DIDW RecapBryan, CTO of PingID, has blogged his recap of DigitalID World. He captures it well. (PingID is a "member owned identity network," the sort of ID system that privacy-obsessed webheads would create ... and I mean this in the very best sense.) I got to have a couple of beers and dinner with Bryan, a guy who's smart and open and interesting and doing good in the world. It's the type of semi-chance encounter that makes the real world fun on occasion. (Despite the nice things he says about me in his recap, it was useful to be reminded of what I said about digital IDs after two beers; I have no capacity for liquor and I'd forgotten. Surprisingly, I think I still agree with me!) 10/13/2002 11:55:15 AM | PermaLink SNL SucksFrom the Why Would I Care Dept.? comes news that I've posted a review of Saturday Night Live on Blogcritics.org. 10/13/2002 11:54:52 AM | PermaLink World's Smartest Person Makes ErrorAlthough I'm frankly afraid of Marilyn Vos Savant, the World's Smartest Person, she is wrong in her column in Parade today.
Also correct: "My car ran over him but I have an alibi" which is known as a "defensive" construction, "Really? I thought he was speed bump because I'd done like nine tequilla shooters in a row, dude" which is known as a "penal" construction and "Sentences are like skid marks over the life the have just ended" which is called an "active" deconstruction. But what I meant to say is this: Imagine two scenarios. A. You are driving along an Arizona highway (which, by the way, is one of the great niche magazines). It's the middle of the night. You're tired. It's raining because you realize you're not on a straight highway in Arizona but a twisty swamp road outside of New Orleans. You feel a bump, stop the car, get out, and discover that you've run over a refugee from the Mardi Gras who fell asleep in the middle of the road. Did you "run someone over" or "run over someone"? B. It turns out that Swamp Thing was sitting by the side of the road and saw you tenderize the meal he'd been eying. With a mighty, swamplike roar, Thing comes after you. You hop into the car and start to drive. Swamp Thing stands in the middle of the road. There's no way to turn around and reverse is broken. So, with a steely glint in your eye, you aim squarely at Swamp Thing. A sickening thud confirms that you..."ran him over" or "ran over him"? Answers: A: You done run someone over. B. You think you ran him over, but you can't be sure because of the pain from the steely glint in your eye. So, go ahead, Marilyn, open up that can of whupsmartass on me. I may not be the World's Smartest Person, but at least I'm, um, well ... Hey, look over there! 10/13/2002 09:47:58 AM | PermaLink Lessig Nears OptimismLarry Lessig, The World's Most Pessimistic PersonTM, waxes almost optimistic in his blog discussing the Eldred case he argued in front of the Supremes a few days ago. Lessig is more optimistic about the outcome of the Eldred case than other reports I'd read because he focuses more on what the Justices did not ask during the hour-long argument, an indication of what they had accepted. Lessig's account presents the issues in a light that was to me — a non-lawyer — radically new and fascinating. Obviously this is must reading for anyone who cares about the future of copyright. 10/13/2002 09:22:22 AM | PermaLink
Saturday, October 12, 2002 Generous writingThe DigitalID World conference would have been a success for me even if I didn't go to any sessions because of who I got to hang around with. I even got to fly back with Jon Udell, whom I first met 15 years ago. I've been in awe of him since I began reading Byte over 20 years ago. We've had intermittent interactions, but never really had a chance to talk at length. (Jon reminded me that the first time we met, I'd driven up to Byte's headquarters to demo a new Interleaf product, which meant schlepping a Sun workstation and monitor. But when I unpacked, I found that the optical mouse hadn't been included, and there were none to be found in the entire Byte offices. No demo. We laughed about it now, although Jon was laughing just a bit harder than I was.) Anyway, we were talking about writing. Jon said how much pleasure he gets from shining the spotlight on other people. I talked about the unpleasant neurosis I share with many writers: the need to be the smartest person in the room. If I write about someone else's ideas, it's usually to "surpass" them by expanding on them, and sometimes to undercut them. This leads to a fundamental intellectual dishonesty in which ideas are more valuable if they're mine. Most writers suffer from this disease for writing itself is often an act of arrogance: "Call on me! I've got something worth cutting down a tree for!" (Among politicians, Gore has the disease but Clinton does not; it's why Gore lost the debates to a moron.) But, ah, the Web! The Web's architecture is hyperlinked. Every link sends readers away from your page. It encourages generosity as surely as writing for print facilitates arrogance. As informal evidence of this, the one place I can consistently see threads of generosity in my own writing is in my weblog. I find it deeply satisfying to point to people who know more than I do, write better, have better ideas. In at least this one regard, the Web has made me a better person. (Yeah, you should have seen me before.) 10/12/2002 05:23:22 PM | PermaLink
Friday, October 11, 2002 Doc RocksDoc started with a joke that isn't really a joke at all: Instead of Digital IDs, why aren't we talking about digital Egos? At the center of this should be the self with all its vagaries, desires, and complexity. It was a great talk and should have come at the beginning of the conference because it raised issues we should have been talking about all along. Doc covered a lot of territory (very entertainingly), but there are two points that stuck out for me. First, he properly made the simple complex: our web identities are much richer and more intricate than what the digital ID folks are talking about. Doc took as his example RageBoy, Chris Locke's online alter ego. Doc talked about how RageBoy was born and how "he" exists via multiple links and identities. What makes us think we can manage these identities, Doc asks? Total agreement and I was very glad to hear Doc say it. Maybe the best thing would be to keep Doc's sense of self conceptually apart from the type of self that the digital ID folks are talking about. They mean by identity something simple: a verifiable connection to a real world self and a way of negotiating transactions with that self. That's a serial number and a bunch of attributes, and that's about it. Real identities are incredibly messy, digital IDs should be as simple as a dog tag, and we'll be fine so long as we don't start to confuse the two. Second, Doc said that since there's no user demand for digital ID, we need something that will "mother necessity," something that will make it catch fire with users. That not only seems right, but it illustrates just how alien digital ID seems to us messy selves. Unfortunately, IMO there is demand for digital IDs but it's coming from the traditional content owners and will be driven from top down. Doc is more optimistic about this than I am these days. (Grant strength to Larry Lessig!) Doc consistently says the things that need to be heard. What a generous and important voice. And it ended the conference on a definite high note. 10/11/2002 02:28:19 PM | PermaLink Macauley v. BonoPeter Kaminski points us to a brilliant speech given by Thomas Macauley in 1841 to Parliament as the question of copyright was being addressed. It's 10,000 words, but it is witty, thorough, deep and pithy. Man, that Macauley guy could really write good! 10/11/2002 11:23:50 AM | PermaLink Federated IDsI was talking this morning with Mark Hallas, policy advisor to the government of Ontario, and he helped me understand why "federated" ID systems are an important topic here. I had thought that the draw of federation is that it enables identities spread across multiple applications and domains to be unified. But Mark explained that federation is important to him also because of the looseness of its binding of IDs. For example, one government system may need to check an ID in another system, perhaps in another province, to verify someone's age but should not have access to the rest of the information being stored. Federated systems can allow this type of filtered access. 10/11/2002 11:02:51 AM | PermaLink XNSDrummmon Reed, CTO of OneName Corp, talked about the XNS protocol his company has pioneered and is trying to get adopted broadly. XNS allows identity information to be expressed in XML documents and be linked, creating (as one of their papers says) "an Identity Web that can do for digital identities what the World Wide Web has done for content." Drummon said that this identity web will be capable of modeling the rich and complex interactions among identities via "contracts" based on an extensible set of attributes that includes permissions, purpose, policies on privacy and security, and signature. Drummon listed the advantages of the system, including: global addressing and logical naming; access control and auditing; permission management; data sharing and versioning; persistent links; and workflow. Sounds great, but I'm confused: Do we get these benefits because XNS is so extensible that it can handle the data usually handled by, say, a workflow system, or is it that a workflow system could use the identity services provided by XNS? Or both? If I came in knowing more, this would not be a question... In speaking with other attendees, the main challenge facing XNS seems to be getting enough "traction" in the market since it requires large scale adoption to fulfill its promise. But I'm merely relying on the kindness of strangers when I say this. (Frank Paynter knows about this stuff and he's excited about XNS.) 10/11/2002 11:01:55 AM | PermaLink Identity Business ModelsCarol Coye Benson from Glenbrook Partners is giving an old fashioned, stand-up, Powerpointed talk. And she's very good. She says: People say that they want to be the "Visa of the identity business." But there's no equivalent in the identity business of the way the credit card system motivates merchants and issuing banks Also, transactions that are clear and simple with credit cards become unclear and complicated in the identity management world. And, Carol says, there are no obvious non-transaction-based models. Carol presents a second "bad idea": "The compulsive consumer fantasy" in which customers have complete control over the information disclosed in different contexts and will pay for the privilege. But this appeals only to the obsessive minority of users, so it's not going to happen on a scale sufficient to build a business. So, where is money to be made? In the enterprise market. And there may be some opportunities for intermediaries, along the credit bureau model. By the way, Carol says we'll have a variety of identities, not one clean, aggregated single identity. We'll have government-issued identities and employer-issued identities, ISP/bank-issued identities, etc. It's going to be messy. And that's a Good Thing. 10/11/2002 10:59:35 AM | PermaLink
Thursday, October 10, 2002 AKMA on the DayAKMA's blogging of the day at the DigitalID World conference is succinct, nuanced and finds the actually important points on which to comment. No blogarrhea on AKMA's site, unlike, um, here.10/10/2002 07:49:28 PM | PermaLink Digital Rights ManagementI moderated this session and thus (ironically?) am unable to blog about its content in a trustworthy way. (Nathan Torkington has blogged a rough transcript of the session.) The session was way too short and I found it frustrating not to be able to drive issues very deeply. My take-away was pretty depressing, from my point of view: there is a generally shared assumption here (as far as I can tell) that of course DRM is a technology issue, that so long as the technology allows for the enforcement of a wide range of usage policies, then the technology is itself neutral. But it's not. The transfer of the application of rules from humans to machines is not neutral. Software has no judgment. It is incapable of judging context or intention. We thus are going to get for digital content the dystopia we've been imagining for 100 years: an absolutist bureaucracy that believes that the perfect world is the one in which rules are enforced perfectly. The DRM Paradox I asked why we don't have DRM yet and one of the panelists said that it was because users are happy with things the way they are. I wanted to say - but didn't because I was the moderator - that you get a paradox if you put that together with what Doc Searls said yesterday: DRM won't take off until someone builds something that users actually want. Well, the market has spoken. DRM is a constriction. We don't want it. So it can only come into existence by being imposed, for it is doing to users something that we don't want done to us. That's not to say that if the market wants free CDs, it should get free CDs. But it does at least mean that claiming that DRM is a user service is a crock. If it's something that, for the sake of establishing a sustainable marketplace, has to be crammed down the throat of users, then let's at least admit it. (But, see the next point...) The DRM Fallacy "The technology merely enables users and vendors to negotiate a license." "This is purely opt-in. If a user doesn't like a license agreement, he doesn't have to say yes." These would be good arguments if the market weren't already skewed by an OS monopoly and a content cartel. "Opting out" of seeing Hollywood movies is like opting out of our culture. We can always be media hermits. Some choice. (Chris RageBoy Locke, my friend and co-author, says that this focuses too much on Mass Media and ignores the many voices that will come from the grass roots. Definitely. But although mass media may not be the only source, it is one that people will continue to care about.) 10/10/2002 05:09:36 PM | PermaLink Craig Mundie, MicrosoftCraig is CTO, Advanced Strategies and Policy for Microsoft. He's going to build the case for digital identity as central to the progress of the computer industry and the progress of computing itself. He says MSFT got interested in "trusted computing" because they realized that if people no longer trusted their computers, they'd stop using computers. (Oddly, the notion that content owners could have access to what's on my computer makes me much less trustful.) The "core tenets" of trustworthy computing, he says, are security, privacy, reliability and business integrity (i.e., the relationship of the vendor to the consumer). Digital identity is a "building block" of trustworthy computing. It involves all four tenets. To get people to accept it -- and "MS identity technologies are opt-in by philosophy" -- they will have to be educated about the benefits. ["Opt-in" is a relative term. If in the future I need to use Microsoft Palladium to download Hollywood content, it is opt-in only if I'm willing to opt out of the entertainment mainstream.] A MSFT product manager is about to give us a demo of a future feature of Passport that will tell you how secure the password you just created is. (Presumably, if you try to use your user name as a password or the words "password" or "god," the thing reaches out and physically slaps you.) Now we're seeing a demo of how MSN8 enables parents to set up controls for what their children can do online. E.g., the parent can specify the subject areas of pages the child can see; it looked like a list of about 50 topics. Of course, filtering by topic is notoriously and conceptually unreliable. So, MSN lets the kid send an email to her parents asking for permission. (The MSFT guy calls it a "feedback loop.") Craig is back. The demo was, in short, a waste of time. He's now working on showing how deep and complex the issue of digital IDs is. IDs are needed not only for humans but also the identity of the machine and the software. Digital Identity has many layers, he says: a. Identity: collections of attributes, some provided by user, some inferred As computers more deeply networked, DigitalID becomes even more necess |