Joho the Blog
An Entry from the Archives

[The comment I would have written here is not written, because the potential consequences to me would not be worth it. Which might be a better refutation anyway :-(]

I suggest Dave Rogers "marketing" post is relevant here, especially to the "how radically different the world" idea:

"Marketers are adept at manipulating emotion to prompt people to engage in rationalization. We know we spend much of our lives in the marketplace, and some small part of us may not feel so good about spending instead of saving. Buying more stuff, only to throw it away or give it away later. Piling on debt, working long hours to pay that debt, spending time working and commuting and coming home exhausted and unable to relate to our families, instead choosing to "relax" by consuming high definition TV, beer, video games, blogs, RSS feeds, anything that feeds our reward centers immediately, which often doesn't include Billy's homework, the housework, your spouse's needs, the budget, the bills, or your own inner life, assuming you still have one."

"You don't see much in the way of introspection from the marketing crowd. They advocate things, but you never see them express any doubts, or discuss potential downsides. They're much too "optimistic" for that. You can't sell very well with doubt."

"So when they toss you that cinder block as you're treading water, they'll do it with a smile on their face, with a cheerful, optimistic disposition, and encourage you to just, "Hang on! It'll be okay! Just wait and see!" And if you complain about the flotation capacity of cinder blocks, they'll get all grumpy and ask if you would rather they just did nothing?"

Seth, there's truth in Dave's rant (and it's deliciously written), but I think it's important to apply it only where it deserves to be applied. Otherwise it can be used as a cinderblock to weigh down all hope.

Zack happens to have considerable cred as a realist. In fact, I've sometimes been put up against him, with me being the hippy happy-guy and Zack the hard-bitten realist. So, I don't write off his call for hope and vision as easily as I might from someone who has only ever wished happy thoughts.

Zack's call here is precisely to get past the cinderblocks, at least for a bit. Take it as a thought experiment. We've been busy making new opportunities for our species. How might we take advantage of them? I think it's a question worth asking, even if requires permitting hope, if only for a little while.

The question: What incentive is there for accuracy rather than popularity in this "experiment"? What system will reward people for being closer to the truth, rather than what the audience wants to hear?

In the environment he's asking the question, "answers" which revolve around stroking the pet projects of the A-listers tend to be rewarded. Answers which are uncomfortable, are, well, uncomfortable.

Cynicism is the worst form of gullibility.