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Will Facebook end its ad program? Nah.

Alan Patrick of the Broadstuff blog wagers 3:2 that now that the “A List” has weighed in against Facebook’s new ad program, Facebook will drop it.

I’d like to think so (see my post here), but I’d wager 100:1 that Facebook will continue. Of course, I’m neither a bettor nor much of a predictor (remember the glorious eight years of the President Howard Dean administration?), but here’s my thinking:

1. The A-List ain’t what once people thought it was. The folks Alan mentions are influential within the tech community, but they are not the head of the long tail and thus don’t have much direct influence over the broad base of Facebook users. (Alan has me on the list, which makes little sense in terms of readership or influence. But, what the heck. I’m just happy to be on a list.)

2. There has been no great uporoar from Facebook users.

3. Facebook has justifications — rationalizations, in my view — for their decisions. For example, Facebook says if you don’t click on any buttons on the popup that invites you to share news of your purchase, it defaults to “yes” because Facebook wants to encourage users to try the program. Besides, Facebook says with some justice, you have to explicitly click on a “yes” button once you log into Facebook before the news is shared. (Sorry this is confusing. See Ethanz for a clear explanation.) True enough. Nevertheless, this strikes me as an anti-user decision that Facebook wouldn’t have made if it weren’t going to make a gazillion dollars from their ad program.

4. Facebook will make a gazillion dollars from their ad program. [Tags: facebook privacy advertising marketing alan_patrick ]

5 Responses to “Will Facebook end its ad program? Nah.”

  1. Have you check out the FEEDJOURNAL?

    Its a new application where you can ad a widget to your blog and print it out like a news paper.

    Check it out at

    You can see an example on my blog at

    Check it.


  2. US A-List bloggers start to line up against Facebook?

    Very good post here by Doc Searls on the issue of who owns our data now and in future.

    For too long we’ve lived with “relationship management” that’s asymmetrical and one-way. Creating the grounds for symmetrical relationships cannot be the jo

  3. @ David…have added your 100:1 against wager ;)

    I suspect the user base ends its relationship not so much with a bang, but a whimper – they just go elsewhere when things get too hard.

    By the way, I think there is a big difference between readership and influence – ie I think you have the latter – but just how to measure that is an interesting conundrum.

  4. Will Facebook recant Beacon in time to save us buying David Weinberger a drink?

    From the Christmas is coming Dept:

    So Facebook is looking at recanting on the Beacon Opt-Out policy, it would seem.

    We offered 3-2 odds this would happen before December, and David Weinberger counterbid 100-1 against. In the UK it is traditional to

  5. […] not publish.Sounds good, right? Well, it's a move in the right direction at least. Of course – as David Weinberger pointed out – Facebook was never going to drop Beacon completely: the site needs to work out more ways of […]

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