When blogs get really popular
While there are a hell of a lot of blogs and blog readers, blogs aren’t even close to being a mainstream phenomenon the way email is. It’ll happen. And here are some guesses (note: guesses) about what they’ll look like when they do:
1. The word “blog” will expand to cover any linkable posting (a place) where a person gets to speak her mind more than once. If it’s more permanent than IM, it’ll be a blog.
2. Group blogs will be at least as common as individual blogs. Most people don’t have time to stoke the blogfires every day, but groups do.
3. The lines between blogs and discussions will blur. Contributing to a blog discussion requires less effort than creating your own and taking the initiative to come up with topics every day or so. The regular participants in a blog discussion will consider themselves to be blogging. (We see this beginning to happen in the comment boards of the Howard Dean blog.)
4. The lines between email and blogs will blur. Already we can post to our blog via email. But at some point, maybe we’ll be able to press a button on an email to post it to the Web, with the link sent automatically to everyone on the message’s cc list, creating an instant blog site that grows as the thread grows. There’s no technical barrier to this, of course, and the functionality already exists already almost and kind of, but it hasn’t been presented to us as a type of blogging. Something like it will be, and the ecological niche between email and blogging will be quickly filled in.
5. Corollary: Closed circulation blogs will become as important as open blogs. Closed circulation lets blogs serve the function of cc lists.
6. Corollary: Many blogs will be event-based and time-limited. I.e., we’ll have Leah’s Graduation Blog that lasts for a month and the Class Trip to Shenandoah Blog that lasts for two weeks.
7. Blogrolls and buddy lists will thoroughly merge somehow.
8. The distinction between the big, high-traffic blogs and the rest of the world of blogging will be increasingly sharply etched. The “tail” will gain more and more value as the number of high-traffic blogs necessarily grows much more slowly. At some point, the “A-List” bloggers won’t even seem like bloggers because what they’re doing is so different from what the rest of us are doing. By analogy, when I receive some massive-circ email newsletter, I don’t think of it as being like email I receive from a friend, even though both are using email transport. (This doesn’t mean the high-traffic blogs will be of less intrinsic value. It does mean they’ll be of less value relative to the increasing cumulative value of the lower-traffic blogs.)
9. Blogs will be of increasing value to democracy.
Categories: Uncategorized dw
Blogging the future
Instapundit highlights a piece over at Joho the Blog that looks at how blogging might change as it gets more popular. More image, voice and video would be my guess. Back in August, Don Park suggested “hand-blogging” might be a…
Framtida for blogs
Noen “spådommer” om framtiden for blogging som jeg finner interessant: really popular ” href=”http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/mtarchive/002114.html”>Joho the Blog: When blogs get really popular…
apart from point #1 (the evolution of the language which we will use to describe these things is the least predictable and least important), i couldn’t agree more; i see these developments as inevitable.
disclaimer: i am currently running a blogging platform that i think points the way to these mergings: integrated IM (with subscriptions and alerts implemented), private email, group blogs and multiple blogs. people love it and the viral effects are phenomenal. currently free and advertising free. it doesn’t take too much imagination to see how the bits start to fit together, imho. I carefully considered the relevancy of this post as being quite directly on topic…hope you agree.
for those interested in seeing this in action, click through the link on my name or got to: to http://www.motime.com
the blog fomat is appropriate for the telling of tales of the lives of Mexican village women from traditional handcrafts producing Tecalpulco – it is the casual and intimate quality of the medium that i think makes it a powerful marketing adjunct
Moving forward, down the pyramid.
Source: Marc’s Voice I really like David Weinberger and Dave Winer is clearly a leader in this area, but BOTH these guys have got to get specific.
Blogging vil ikke længere ligne blogging
David Weinberger skriver om fremtiden for blogging, og det gør Dave Winer også. Det basale pitch er: Web enabled diskussion…
The future of communication
JOHO is talking about the future of blogs: really popular” href=”http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/mtarchive/002114.html”>Joho the Blog: When blogs get really popular While there are a hell of a lot of blogs and blog readers, blogs aren’t even close to …
Very interesting… What do you think of teh impact of blogging on journalism and what is your opinion regarding the future of blogging then??
for future reference
Searching for something completely different, I found David Weinberger’s post of guesses of how we’ll blog when blogs are really popular. Also to be tucked away for future use, is the comparison of the nanoaudiences of blogs to the audience…
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Here’s a weird set of connections: Blogs and Partial Birth Abortion
I had an interesting discussion with David Weinberg recently about the future of blogs. One of the side trips of the discussion was that age old question: What’s a blog? Is it a blog? My gut reaction was, who cares what you call it. David wrote up some…
I post comments because I want to be part of the conversation. I’ve made a conscious decision to engage with weblog authors and other commenters. I want to share my opinions and thoughts. I want to be a positive player in the new weblog medium. I want to overcome the boundries of space, even if only for a few short moments, and engage with others.
Select Mode: Publisher
David Weinberger recently wrote a weblog post entitled When blogs get really popular. In it he states that the line between blogging and email will become blurred. He says: “The word “blog” will expand to cover any linkable posting (a…
On Broadcasting
The Two-Way Web is a very simple concept. It’s all about normal everyday people having a publishing platform on the Web. Sounds reasonable to me, but a thread on Many-to-Many this week has complicated the issue. Here’s my summary, based…
I think there is a huge difference between blogging and CMS. IMHO
You made some very good points. But I think its a big mistake to overlook the impact that Celebrity Bloggers will make on the blogging scene. So far, there are only a few celebrities that are blogging, but when they start to realize just how much their fans like it, I think it will become epidemic.
The Future of Blogging, In Their Own Words, Part 4
Just be patient while I get this out of my system. . . I googled the keyword phrase “future of blogging” and found numerous voices speaking to the subject. In an effort to be the de facto site speaking to
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Enlaces para pasar el rato
Mi colección de enlaces sobre los que postear volvió a crecer hasta límites insospechados… De modo que ahí van los más antiguos. A ver si este fin de semana puedo postear algunos más: • Algunos trucos interesantes y…
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