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Will Facebook end its ad program? Nah.

Alan Patrick of the Broadstuff blog wagers 3:2 that now that the “A List” has weighed in against Facebook’s new ad program, Facebook will drop it.

I’d like to think so (see my post here), but I’d wager 100:1 that Facebook will continue. Of course, I’m neither a bettor nor much of a predictor (remember the glorious eight years of the President Howard Dean administration?), but here’s my thinking:

1. The A-List ain’t what once people thought it was. The folks Alan mentions are influential within the tech community, but they are not the head of the long tail and thus don’t have much direct influence over the broad base of Facebook users. (Alan has me on the list, which makes little sense in terms of readership or influence. But, what the heck. I’m just happy to be on a list.)

2. There has been no great uporoar from Facebook users.

3. Facebook has justifications — rationalizations, in my view — for their decisions. For example, Facebook says if you don’t click on any buttons on the popup that invites you to share news of your purchase, it defaults to “yes” because Facebook wants to encourage users to try the program. Besides, Facebook says with some justice, you have to explicitly click on a “yes” button once you log into Facebook before the news is shared. (Sorry this is confusing. See Ethanz for a clear explanation.) True enough. Nevertheless, this strikes me as an anti-user decision that Facebook wouldn’t have made if it weren’t going to make a gazillion dollars from their ad program.

4. Facebook will make a gazillion dollars from their ad program. [Tags: facebook privacy advertising marketing alan_patrick ]

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